Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $56,810$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(8 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55,303.9}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(55,303.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,237$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(1.23 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,968.4}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,968.4\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $32,418$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $235,290$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(4.71 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{225,276.8}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 34.3)}}\) (asimptote \(225,276.8\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,678$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(5.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,121.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,121.1\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $56,236$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $258,504$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(2.02 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{265,347.7}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 50.0)}}\) (asimptote \(265,347.7\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $36,757$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(3.87 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,733.5}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 41.0)}}\) (asimptote \(35,733.5\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $220,598$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $229,327$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(3.91 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{223,372.7}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 41.7)}}\) (asimptote \(223,372.7\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $32,735$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(4.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,660.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 43.4)}}\) (asimptote \(31,660.6\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $57,752$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $182,036$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(2.95 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{179,492.1}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(179,492.1\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,218$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(4.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,256.9}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 37.8)}}\) (asimptote \(27,256.9\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $89,830$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $33,188$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(2.25 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,757.6}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 57.1)}}\) (asimptote \(35,757.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,992$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(357 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,009.1}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,009.1\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,225$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $45,265$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(7.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,322.1}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 39.3)}}\) (asimptote \(44,322.1\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,830$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(860 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,736.9}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,736.9\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $39,261$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $24,582$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(2.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,258.4}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 43.4)}}\) (asimptote \(24,258.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,604$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(142 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,586.0}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 42.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,586.0\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,918$ on 2020-05-23