Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $56,810$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(8 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55,303.9}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(55,303.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,237$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.23 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,968.4}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,968.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,418$ on 2020-05-23

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $235,290$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(4.71 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{225,276.8}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 34.3)}}\) (asimptote \(225,276.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,678$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(5.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,121.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,121.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $56,236$ on 2020-05-23

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $258,504$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(2.02 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{265,347.7}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 50.0)}}\) (asimptote \(265,347.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $36,757$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(3.87 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,733.5}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 41.0)}}\) (asimptote \(35,733.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $220,598$ on 2020-05-23

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $229,327$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(3.91 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{223,372.7}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 41.7)}}\) (asimptote \(223,372.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32,735$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(4.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,660.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 43.4)}}\) (asimptote \(31,660.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $57,752$ on 2020-05-23

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $182,036$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(2.95 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{179,492.1}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(179,492.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,218$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(4.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,256.9}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 37.8)}}\) (asimptote \(27,256.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $89,830$ on 2020-05-23

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $33,188$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(2.25 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,757.6}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 57.1)}}\) (asimptote \(35,757.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,992$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(357 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,009.1}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,009.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,225$ on 2020-05-23

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $45,265$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(7.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,322.1}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 39.3)}}\) (asimptote \(44,322.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,830$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(860 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,736.9}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,736.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39,261$ on 2020-05-23

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $24,582$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(2.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,258.4}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 43.4)}}\) (asimptote \(24,258.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,604$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(142 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,586.0}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 42.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,586.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,918$ on 2020-05-23

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Slovenia recovered 98%
Switzerland recovered 94%
Austria recovered 91%
Croatia recovered 90%
Andorra recovered 88%
Germany recovered 84%
Slovakia recovered 81%
Denmark recovered 77%
Lithuania recovered 60%
Czechia recovered 53%
Italy recovered 47%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 42%
Serbia recovered 34%
Romania recovered 29%
San Marino recovered 25%
Bulgaria recovered 3%

Slovenia⮸

Population $2,078,938$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,468$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(468 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,454.0}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 24.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,454.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $106$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(19.8 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.6}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 30.9)}}\) (asimptote \(103.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22$ on 2020-05-23

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,725$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(7.64 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,971.4}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 30.9)}}\) (asimptote \(29,971.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,905$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(314 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,872.1}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,872.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $820$ on 2020-05-23

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,486$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(4.35 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,610.7}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 28.4)}}\) (asimptote \(15,610.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $639$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(127 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{628.6}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 30.9)}}\) (asimptote \(628.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $810$ on 2020-05-23

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,243$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(407 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,178.5}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,178.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $99$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(12.8 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102.2}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(102.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-05-23